Posted by: righthandblink | May 2, 2016

Climate Change and Peak Oil

Climate Change and Peak Oil
The devil’s duo.


So how big is climate change, this problem that faces mankind? Oil giant Chevron Texaco’s Chairman declared, “Climate change is, without question, the single greatest environmental challenge we face.” Former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan said, “It’s not just an environment issue, it’s an all-encompassing threat.”
       To put things in perspective, there are already enough GHGs existing in the atmosphere to continue to warm our planet for at least the next two decades – even if we were never again to emit a single GHG. Actually, that number was published in 2007 so we really should add 2016 – 2007 or 9 years to that twenty, making the total now twenty-nine years that the planet will continue to warm.
       Looking at this another way, the healing period that our atmosphere needs to process the existing GHGs is at least that twenty-nine years — > 2016 + 29 = 2045 and probably later given our continued reliance on fossil fuels. And we won’t be stopping any time soon so this planet is likely to get much warmer.

We deal with stresses every day, some small, some bigger than others. Climate change is one of the big ones. The look at the news about the wildfires ravaging Fort McMurray.
       Thomas Homer-Dixon, author of “The Ingenuity Gap,” calls these kinds of stresses, tectonic stresses, to equate their severity to those that are operating under the surface of our planet that contribute to earthquakes. But Homer-Dixon says that it’s not just one tectonic stress that we deal with at any one time. We’ve created a world in which we have to deal with multiple stresses. They’re simultaneous and, in many cases, they’re convergent. And that is what is particularly dangerous.
       One of the most significance intermingling stresses related to climate change is peak oil. Just because you haven’t heard about peak oil for a while, doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist anymore or that it isn’t important. Matter-of-fact, peak oil is, and will continue to be, the most dramatic factor affecting climate change and the way we think about climate change.

Current projections extrapolated from the research of M. King Hubbert and confirmed by the Post Carbon Institute show that we will basically run out of oil somewhere between 2035 and 2040. Most people will say that is ridiculous, that we will never run out of oil. Well, technically, that is true. There will always be oil somewhere on this planet, but we will run out of the “quantity” we are presently using to drive and maintain the global economy, somewhere between 2035 and 2040. That should already be clearly evident with all the economic stresses being played out globally, especially in Canada. (see the article “Has Peak Oil Occurred Yet”)
       Putting the time frame in perspective: 2035 less 2016 = 19 years and 2040 less 2016 = 24 years. So between 19 and 24 years from now, this will all happen. That’s less than one generation. Peaking means categorically that you no longer grow.
       But “when will we run out of oil” is not the question you should be asking. All oil production whether its in one field, or one country or the planet as a whole, always follows a bell curve.

Two Woman

Bell Curve

What is happening to the global economy is directly related to sliding down the backside of the bell curve.

We know what the causes of climate change are, and we have known them for decades. They are not complex. The consequence of our really not wanting to solve climate change will then become very evident and bite us right where it will hurt the most and do the most damage, right in our butts. We all know that is true because we keep putting off doing anything substantial about climate change – we have to study it some more or we need another report on that – and we keep pushing the time frame way out to 2050 and beyond. So the perception is that we have lots of time. Something a magician uses smoke and mirrors for. (see the article “Climate Change – A Complex or Simple Problem?”)
       What we are attempting to highlight is what will happen if we run out of oil while we are attempting to fight climate change? Think about that. Basically, everything in society that we cherish will end.
       You might say that I am crazy and that it won’t happen or that it isn’t true. Well, maybe I am crazy, but you keep this in mind, just because you say it won’t happen or it isn’t true, doesn’t mean that it isn’t true and that it won’t happen.
       After you drive a car off a cliff, it’s too late to hit the brakes. In effect, we have already gone over the edge of the cliff.

But by then we really won’t have to worry, will we? With society not burning any more fossil fuels, climate change will be able to solve itself, but, unfortunately, only to our demise. Nature wins again. That shouldn’t be of any surprise to anyone.
       Are you going to have the same attitude that President George H. W. Bush had? Just prior to the 1992 Earth Summit in Brazil, he famously said, “The American way of life is not negotiable.” Do you believe that attitude could be reflected in the thoughts of every Canadian?

Instead of doing what we have to do;
We keep doing what we want to do.

There will always be time to do what we have to do later . . . .

Ottawa has shown that it has lots of money. So when climate change and peak oil really starts to hit us, that will be the time when “The Great Equalizer” comes into play.

What is “The Great Equalizer” you say?

“The Great Equalizer” occurs when we all become very rich. How exciting! Our Prime Minister will give us all a big bag of money, like he’s been doing, but instead of you spending it on improving infrastructure, you will put it in your wood stoves to keep warm. You can’t eat it so we don’t know what you will do about food!

 

 

SOURCES: Peak Oil Info & Strategies http://www.oildecline.com/

Recent Warnings:
“Peak oil is now.” German Energy Watch Group – 2008
“By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear..…” U.S. Department of Defense – 2008 & 2010.
“A global peak is inevitable. The timing is uncertain, but the window is rapidly narrowing.” UK Energy Research Centre – 2009
“The next five years will see us face … the oil crunch.” UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security – 2009

 

Renewable, Green and Healthy . . . for a Sustainable Tomorrow!
© 2016, Right Hand Blink

 

 

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